Why is the Housing Market Doing So Well with Logan Mahtashami

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Go check it out right now, visit LOKestudy.com and download your free copy today. Hey, listeners. What's up, Jeff? Zimphur. Welcome back to another episode of Mortgage Marketing Radio. So glad you're here. I am back from vacation. I was vacationing away up in Big Bear, California, the mountains of Southern California with the fam and doing some zipline and emboating and Brented mountain bikes, these e-bikes. This mountain bike that has a motor on it, right, an e-motor and electric motor that allows you to go further and faster and higher. I rode 20 miles and 2.5 hours and increased elevation of 2,000 feet and burned 2,000 calories. Couldn't have done that with a regular mountain bike. I'll tell you that. But man, if you ever get a chance to try those e-bikes out, that's awesome. I hope you're taking some time during this summer, during this crazy market to at least, right? Relax, recharge, reconnect, because this is an incredible opportunity. We've got to reap this harvest while it's here. But also, we've got a rumor to take care of ourselves and our families and our loved ones. What are we working so hard for? So be careful not to fall in the trap of constant 24-7 work. And then, of course, getting back into this, there's a couple of topics that I'm circling around in my head for quite a while. As you know, I've been doing the weekly live show on Facebook. It's streamed over to YouTube. So if you haven't checked that out yet, go to the Mortgage Marketing Institute page on Facebook. Or if you haven't joined the podcast group yet on Facebook, we've got a private group just for podcast listeners. We'll put links in the show notes. That's also on Facebook, Mortgage Marketing Radio Group, if you want to search that and or YouTube. Go check out my YouTube channel because I'm going to be adding some additional content there in the near future. I'll let you know when that is. I've been thinking a lot about strategy, like content strategy with what I'm putting out, how is it working? By the way, I'd be curious to know from you guys, listening, now that we've mixed it up a bit and we're basically repurposing the Facebook live show, the live shows being repurposed to a podcast like this, like you're listening to right now, so you're getting an audio only version of that. I'd be curious to know if you like that or not, because I've had some thoughts about a future of content here for you guys and I'd love your feedback. So feel free to email me anytime infoatmortgagemarketinginstitute.com or just message me on Facebook, probably the easiest thing to do as well. I'll let me know if you have any comments, thoughts, suggestions about the content. And hey, if you do like the podcast, leave us a review if you don't mind, right? Where if you're listening to this? A review helps me to know that you are getting value from the podcast. Okay, so that said, one other quick thing I want to remind you of folks, if you in today's world post-COVID, right? The ReFi Boom. One of the things we've got to stay aware of and be cognizant of is that with the ReFi Boom that we don't let our realtor relationships go by the wayside. Now, if you're listening to me, then I assume to some degree you have realtors as one of the pillars in your business. It's not the only pillar, but it's one that's proven throughout the years to be profitable and consistent when done correctly. But oftentimes what I find is a lot of originators have struggles or challenges with how do I approach realtors? They're coal-calling, they're, you know, meeting onesy-tuzy, et cetera. And since COVID, everything's changed, meaning the face-to-face meetings, coffee meetings have pretty much gone away. The office presentations, lunch and learns have pretty much gone away. Will those come back? Yes. But it's a matter of when and how fast. So with that, I've got an incredible opportunity. If you don't know by now, we have an educational platform. It's called My Agent Classes. And what it is, as a growing library, if turnkey done for you classes that are ready to go, plug and play for you to just deliver over Zoom, share your screen, the PowerPoint, we give you the talking points, the speaker notes, the transcript, I give you a video tutorial teaching you how to do the class, we give you marketing promotional items like images and stuff, show you how to set it up on Facebook events, tutorials on how to host a Zoom. I mean, literally, it is your educational platform in a box. And we have been doing this now for quite a number of years. We've got lots of member success stories at a minimum away for you to change the game, to no longer chase realtors, to no longer cold-called realtors, to choose who you want to work with, to have a top of the funnel system for attracting and converting real estate agents, and educational platform has proven to be consistently. In my experience, being in this in 2003, the best way to attract, build and convert realtors to referrals and weed out the bottom feeders. So if you want to learn more about that, go check out mortgagemarketing.pro. There's a brief video I put up there, and I'll give you an overview of what everything is all about, mortgagemarketing.pro, and love to have you join, be a member there, and help you expand your influence, capture more agents, and get more referrals, especially as the refives die down, which they will in the coming months. And if you don't prepare now for that, if you're not actively engaged with real estate agents, someone else is. All right, enough said about that. Let's get into this week's show. We are, this is a repurpose of the live show that we had with my special guest, Logan Mottoshami, who is an incredible person, incredibly knowledgeable. He is a housing data analyst with housing wire, financial writer and blogger. He's a recently retired mortgage professional as well, his family being in the business since the 80s. So he has an intimate knowledge of what it means to be a mortgage originator, but his grasp and understanding of data and why the housing market's doing so well. Why we're going to see interest rates perform well for the next several years, why there is no student debt crisis, et cetera, why and who are the biggest demographic patch of buyers in history and how you can capitalize on that. This has been an education on how to better understand rates, markets, what moves them, and a way to hopefully help you articulate when you're talking to clients and prospects, to talk intelligently with them for those that you may hear, oh, I'm waiting for the housing market to go down. Oh, my rates are going to get whatever the case is. I believe more than ever we need to have, as my friend Dave Savage says, advice versus price conversations, position ourselves as a knowledgeable authority. That's what's going to build trust. That's what's going to keep the relationships sticky and minimize the shopping that people are doing when they have to wait for the re-five for 45 or 60 days. So I hope you enjoy this episode. As always, feel free to reach out to me on the channels that I talked about. And don't forget, the book is out. You want to go get Disruptor Die, makes a wonderful gift for real estate agents, a great rate for read for you, how to survive and thrive, the digital real estate shift. You can go to the website to get the book, which is DisruptorDieBook.com. That's it. Enjoy this episode. Without further ado, let's get into this week's show. Logan, Mata Shami, Housing Wire, Contributor, Retired Lone Officer, Data Analyst, Extraordinaire. Welcome to the show. Great to have you. Great to have you. Great to have you. Well, you and I obviously have had some conversations prior to this, and I'm very blown away by your knowledge of data and recall. And let me just check the people watching live here. Mark Gelben, what's up? High five to you, Mark. Good to see you here. Get ready to put your comments or questions in, because we are talking about leading it off with, well, Logan, why don't you do this? Before I start with the first question, I kind of talked about the, I love you to give your version of your bio, who you are, what are you all about? Well, I'm a Retired Lone Officer. Our family's had a mortgage company here in Southern California since 1987, and just about a month ago, I retired. My father's still working. Our family in general has been in banking since the late 1950s, but about 10 years ago, I started a financial blog. I started to talk about housing and economics. And every year, it kind of just got sharper and leaner. And then, you know, I did full-blown basically data analyst work. A lot of people kind of know me for that more than being a loan officer. A lot of people were surprised that I've been a loan officer all these years. But my job is charts all day, charts all night, total nerd fest. So about economics, housing, everything like that, you know, I'm the kind of the one man stop shop, because it's 24 or 7 all the time. Yeah, 100% absolutely. And for those that are looking to get better educated and informed on, the real story about housing, what impact just interest rates are not, I definitely encourage you to follow Logan. We'll give you some of those links before we wrap up here. But Logan, let's open it up with, you know, the question I wanted to start with, which is why is the housing market doing so well, we're coming out of a pandemic, right? All these issues, job losses. So let's start with that. Why is the housing market performing so well? Well, in general, economics is demographics and productivity. The rest is kind of stamp collecting. But in housing, it's primarily demographics and mortgage rates. So right now in 2020, which is something I've talked about for eight years now, I thought this 2008 to 2019 housing would have the weakest recovery ever. But by years 2020 to 2024, we're going to have like a little sweet spot for about five years, where we have the biggest housing demographic patch ever recorded in history. And for something like myself and the people who follow my work, I've always believed in lower mortgage rates. So this is kind of, it's happening this year. Now, of course, it gets tested by a global pandemic and a virus. And initially everyone thought, well, housing's in a bubble, student-of-one debt crisis, housing has to go down. And I was like, no, just wait, right? The virus can cause a lot of damage, short term to the economy, but it can't kill off the two things that really drives the housing markets, its demographics and mortgage rates. So once, you know, after the first few weeks, when purchase applications were going down to 2030 percent year of year, we started to come back and now the last seven weeks we've had double-digit, positive year of year growth, which is faster now than was before the coronavirus. And before COVID hit, you know, housing, new home sales cycle highs, existing home sales cycle highs, housing starts were up 40 percent year of year and February. So it looks right to me, I think, explaining the story why is really important because it takes these housing crash bubble people off the line and usually these guys are just fraudulent grifters. And I think that's one of the things I've tried to stress over the last three years. That's a, is that a term of endearment, fraudulent grifters? Yes. Yes. Gold budget. Central bank people. Love it, love it. All right. So, yeah, give us, give us some of the data behind this, you know, the story that's not often told in, in normal media about, you know, the housing market, what, what's, why is demographics favorable, you know, for the, you said a window for the next what, what, to 2022, 24? Years, 2020 to 2024 and the reason I, the reason I say that is that the biggest age group ever recorded in US history are ages 26 to 32. So the first time meeting home buyer ages 33, so the notion that millennials aren't buying homes or that there's a student loan debt crisis and none of a, this makes no sense. We've had basically roughly six million total home sales for years now and it's not like Gen X is buying or the baby boomers are buying. It's millennials coming into their prime buying age. And I've always said this, you know, it's kind of explained it. People rent, they date, they make, they marry three and a half year at the marriage, they have kids, they, they do things a little bit later in life, but they do them. So I think there were, there was just a giant, titanic whiff on this millennials don't buy homes and there's a student loan debt crisis, there's an affordability crisis. We had 648 economic crisis events in the last 10 years and we had the longest economic and job expansion ever recorded in history. And the only thing that shut this economy down was a global pandemic virus. So I don't believe the hype of the doom and gloom tellers, you know, we've always had groups like this since 1790 in American, American bears have failed every decade since then. So follow math, facts and data, follow people that believe in economic models and always ask a bear, what's your economic model for recession, why is housing going to crash? They're just going to tell you the same thing, the fed, the fed, the fed gold, gold, gold debt debt debt. Right. Has it worked? So you're saying don't follow that, follow the demographics. Follow, follow demographics and mortgage rates, mortgage rates get above 4.5% housing slows down. So, you know, the people that say, well, mortgage rates are historically low, well, when you, when you're working with a certain kind of supply and demand equilibrium, mortgage rates above 4.5% in 2013, 2014 slowed the market in 2018, it slowed the market. So just remember that things aren't, you know, don't use previous models or previous interest rates, work with what you have right now and be careful of the doom and gloom housing crowd. You know, that's kind of how they make their living and it's just, hasn't happened. And this year is a prime example that demographics and mortgage rates matter more. Yeah. And you said mortgage rates when they get to about 4.5% can slow the housing market. It can slow, yeah. Yeah. They can slow the housing when they can't collapse the market, but it definitely does slow the market. So I always tell people when a 10 year yield gets above 2.62%, be mindful of that. You know, some people go, oh, don't worry, the historically these are low yields. No, there are levels, especially in hot coastal areas where demand gets, demand slows down and supply does increase. So, you know, for those of us that have a long view of history knowing that my, I mean, my perspective is 4.5% is still very cheap money, right? In terms of comparatively what interest rates were back in the 80s and all that when we had inflation, right? We had double digit interest rates. Do you foresee, because to your point about, let's look at the models for currently where we are in the world. I mean, do you foresee any situation where we would get back to that situation of double digits? If I see 6% mortgage rates ever in my life, and I'm 44, I will be shocked, shocked beyond belief. I mean, we must have done some kind of massive government stimulus spending plan to get growth back to those levels, because what, you know, since 1981, if you look at the chart of the 10 year yield, it's been going down every single cycle, it's never broken that downtrend. And it shouldn't, because the world is older, we're an older country, demographics and technology or deflationary population growth is slowing down. We're not going to get the kind of the growth rates or the inflation rates that people are thinking that would go inside with high mortgage rates. So in the United States dollars, the reserve currency of the world, it just gets too strong and bad times. So no, I mean, I would honestly be shocked if I saw 6% mortgage rates in my lifetime. So do you have any concerns with, you know, Fed buying mortgage back securities, right? And as we hear the term, keeping rates artificially low? No, artificially low is one of these gold bug gripping tactics that they've used forever. So it's just, it's just not, I mean, you think about it, mortgage rates and interest rates have been falling for decades, and this is the Fed started a QE in 2010. So the QE actually ended in 2014 and actually yields rise right after that. So again, ignore people that have used Fed, gold and inflation. If you take those three, if you just ignore people that use those three, then you're going to be okay. But when you start to say the Fed, they keeps artificial rates, these are all marketing gimmicks for your doom and gloom. And so, and they fail really. I mean, we just have the longest expansion ever in history, and if it wasn't for this virus, we'd still be moving along. So you mentioned a moment ago about we don't have a student loan debt crisis, and you've shared some specific data around why that is. And I think that goes into your point about perception and media. Let's talk about some real facts when it comes to student loan debt crisis. Break that down. So when people talk about student loan debt crisis, that Americans can't buy homes because they have too much student loan debt, what they don't show is actually they break down the data. You see that like 72% of the people that have student loan debt are actually under 17,000. The people that have a lot of stress with their student loan debt are mostly college dropouts. And then the balance is roughly 10,000. So you're talking about people that never finished college and don't have, you know, when you finish college, you have debt, but you have the income capacity usually with that debt. That's why college educated Americans make more money than everyone else. That's why college educated Americans actually have more financial assets. So when you break down the data, the people that go to school, that finish school, that go to work right away that have very low unemployment rates, they're okay. But if you talk about people that took on debt that never finished school, even though the debt size isn't that big, that's where the stress is. So it's not like baby boomers are buying all these homes or Gen X are buying these homes. It's millennials that are coming into their kind of first time home, home buyer age. And they go to college. So I mean, you could make a case that some of these people just can't buy bigger homes because the debt payments or the debt balance is too much. But the notion that student loan debt crisis was here when we just had the longest job in expansion, longest economic expansion. And now housing is the single most outperforming economic sector in the world shows that something was really wrong with that thesis. That's something I've been talking about for many years now. So how about the job loss situation, right? Whatever that number was, I'm sure you know it better than I 40 some odd million, what's the impact? Well, here's the thing, we have job loss times are running about over 40 million if you combine them, continuing claims are a little bit over 18 million. But one of the things that if you looked at the job losses, a lot of these are tied to what I call renter households and people that are future renters. And immediately the doom and gloom people said, oh, look at these major job losses. It doesn't impact homeowners as much. But I think what we see a lot is especially on Twitter, financial media, labor economists and economists in general focus on the unemployed people. But they never talk about that there's 138 million people still working, right? So if people go, how could housing have double did you go? There's 138 million people working and the key is the housing market just needs 4 million mortgage buyers per year to keep demands stable. And this is why 2020 as soon as you've got this fear out of this virus out of, we just go back to because it's not like the car sales market where you need 17 or 18 million to create new highs, you need 4 million mortgage buyers per year. And then you know, you still have a very high level of cash buyers in the market. And that's how you keep sales demands stable. And that's why you don't see this parabolic spike in inventory and even with the four bearance plan, it's still people are homeowners now are in much better spot than they were in 2003 to 2008, where it was a credit bubble. And we did not have a credit consumer bubble going into this crisis. So if we had a time in history where a global pandemic occurs, this is not a bad time to have it because we have a lot of fiscal space, we can borrow a lot of money, we can help people, interest rates are low, inflation is low. But the demographics are favorable and this is one of the reasons why you see some of these data is just sharply rebound up. Once you get this virus out of the system, game is on again, right? And we go back to some of the old school thinking of what's going to create a recession that never happened. So when you say game back on again, once we get out of this virus, I mean, you and I both know the mortgage industry is incredibly hot right now, the housing industry is on fire. What does that mean? Is that mean it's going to get even busier? Well, one of the things that people are going to have to realize that once we got the sharp rebound in purchase applications, and then we're going to flatten out because we're at cycle highs, I mean, pre cycle highs, we're already showing double digit growth. We're already here, right? We're the only sector that is actually for eight weeks have been showing double digit growth right now. So at that point, it becomes basically a traditional or what I call is act for housing 2020, you know? So it's not like, you know, we're going to be working from a very low level for a long time. We had the V shape recovery, it already happened. So you're not, you know, we were looking at probably 6.4 million total home sales before, you know, this crisis hit. So you just want existing home sales to kind of be above 4.6 million new home sales market yesterday, the new home sales purchase applications were showing 54% year-to-year growth. You get 700,000 right there. It's a stable marketplace. And then we got to deal with the virus and then what's going to happen in 2021. And for right now, it's pretty much done. The leg work is done. All we need to see is flat to positive purchase application year-of-year for the rest of your housing should be okay, because we already did the V shape recovery already. Interesting. So we came in and out of this, the rebound from the pandemic pretty quickly. After three weeks, the purchase application data started to show its recovery. That's all. That's because social distancing was rolled back. People could go out and look at homes again. Well, they could look at house, but in general, you know, people were still buying and selling homes across the country, you know, every state, every state kind of had their own kind of lockdowns. But, you know, technology and productivity and everything, you know, the world has changed so much. You could still do deals. Right? But I think the big thing is that, and what I try to tell people, credit still flowed. And that's the most important thing in economic cycles for America. We had a mortgage market meltdown in March 9th. You know, rates didn't go up. Some of the non-QM lenders were gone, low pico scorch, FHA, general markets. But that's, I always talked about it. That's about 4.5 to 6.2 percent of the marketplace, fretting fanny, because they are not publicly traded companies and out of government conservorship, we're able to keep the market flowing. And this is why I'm a big advocate. Let these two giants stay with the government, because if they were publicly traded companies or stocks would have gone down, credit would have tightened. We would have not had this V-shape recovery. You wouldn't have seen the four-bearance plans, because the government has the ability to take losses on their books. These two giants should not be publicly traded, because we probably would have had to do congressional hearings, get them back into conservatorship. We would have wasted it a lot of times, but no. After three weeks, you could kind of see, purchase application decline stopped. We started to slowly get back up. In the last eight weeks, we're positive. The last seven weeks are actually showing double vision year-over-year growth. And we still have a virus out here. And we're now seeing more states do more lockdown protocols and taking some of the re-opening spec. So, what we're going through right now with the housing price increase, the appetite, the activity levels, and of course, people tend to look back to 2008 and all that kind of stuff. And I know this isn't the same thing, so I'm not delusional to think that. What about, I mean, where is the end for housing prices, like you and I've talked before? Socal, California, coastal cities and stuff. I mean, it's outrageous at some point, right? Doesn't, you know what I'm saying, the market correction? Here's the thing. Last year, the housing market was like a van Gogh and a Monet put together. Nobody realized it. What happened was that mortgage rates had gone up. The start of the year inventory increased year by year, just slightly. Nothing dramatic. Demand was down slightly. The rate of growth of home prices actually went negative when you adjusted to inflation, the equivalence of rent. I thought that was one of the best things we could ever see. I'm a big believer that real home prices that they stay negative is good for housing long term, because we're getting to the point. If you look at per capita income and home prices, we're kind of right there where, you know, it's almost connected right now. Even the housing bubble years, home prices just blew well above per capita income. So, and it was a credit bubble, but we're talking about three years, really. 2002 to 2005, real home prices were double digits. We only had that one year in the previous expansion. That was 2013. And what happened in 2013, mortgage rates, this got to four in a quarter, four and a half, that rate of growth slowed down dramatically. So if you look at a home prices on a year of year basis, look at it adjusting to inflation, but we saw from 2012 to 2020 looks nothing like what we saw from 2002 to 2005. So my fear always, in years 2020 to 2024, was that home prices would escalate higher too much. Now, I think the virus has calmed that down. So I'm going to put kind of a, let's worry about that if it gets there. But because you have this massive demographic patch, and then you have low interest rates and housing tenure, I think that's the story. If you had one main story about housing in the last few years, people are just staying in their homes longer and longer, which means that the sum of the supply that you would normally see, people just don't need to move. It's not like they're locked down on mortgages, but they just don't need to move. With that bigger and bigger homes for many decades, people just stay put. And I think that that could, you know, get to really hot home prices. But I think for now, it'll be okay, because the virus has impacted demand to a degree. And, you know, if we saw real home prices going back 5, 6, 7%, not a good sign, you know. And initially, when we started off the year, home prices, especially the NAR data, was way too hot, but it's kind of come back down. So we're in a good spot right here. Hmm. Interesting. So far, income wages is keeping up then with home prices. We're, yeah, we're at the point to where, you know, home prices still, you know, outpace for capital income, we're at troubles. But for the longest time, you know, per capital income was actually above home prices. No, not a lot of people know that because they take the do-go-go-to-story away. And this is one of the reasons why we had the longest job expansion, longage economic expansion. We've got 6 million total home sales, new and existing homes, mortgage purchase applications that have been rising since 2014. And now we've got the demographic patch, the one time in history right here where we have low rates and the biggest housing demographic patch ever. All right. So put your loan officer cap on for a moment and harken back to maybe some of the comments or questions you've heard from consumers over the years knowing our audience is mostly loan originators. Throw a couple of comments at you. Well, I'm just waiting for the housing market to come down. Yeah. What do you say to that? Well, it's a number one question I get, you know, from real estate agencies. How do I explain to my, you know, clients that, you know, housing isn't a bubble? And I actually have a, I always use the case shiller year over year real home price growth. And you can kind of see, there's nothing here. There's nothing like what we saw in 2002 to 2003. And a good point, a good reference and what I tell real estate agencies of Lord Officers, we had 7.26 million existing home sales at the peak in 2005. We had a million new homes. That's a credit bubble, right? Non-owning capacity did. We just had the weakest housing recovery ever. I'm talking about new home sales and housing starts. So there isn't this big demand, and I think this is what happened in 2020. We're not working from such an elevated level that sales are just going to collapse and inventories that's going to go up. So kind of use those metrics. And that's been right. That's been right for the last eight years. The people that are talking about prices have to come down. It's a bubble. It's going to crash. They've been wrong because they don't have any economic models. They just simply say that a Federal Reserve has kept interest rates low and rates are going to go up in inflation wrong. Four decades have been wrong out here. And I'm not even talking about just the goal, but economists and housing economists, everybody has been wrong for four decades because all they need to do is look at the chart. There was never any time that we broke that downturn going up. So I tell people, most likely see one handle on mortgage rates before you see six handle on mortgage rates. Yeah. So I was just going to ask you. You're going to talk the other day is you are bullish on rates going even lower than they currently are? Well, mortgage rates should be lower right now than what they are. The business of doing mortgages and rates just went haywire. And we had margin calls. We had early payoffs. You had basically 90% of production in America, basically at risk for an early payout. There's no way they're going to let that go down. So I'm curious to see where mortgage rates are going to go after September. Because after September, that six months EPO payments that's pretty much gone, you might see a little bit of loosening in mortgage rates even if the 10 year yield stays right here. And kind of before, before we had this big collapse in bond yields, I talked about my recessionary yields are about a negative 21 basis points, yes, negative on the 10 year and 62 basis points. That's where I think the 10 year yield should be. The fact that a 10 year yield just refuses to go below 62 basically shows me that the bond market, the stock market, the markets are saying that credit stress has been relieved. Once you get through this virus, the U.S. economy is coming back to some of the data. You kind of see that right now. But after September, maybe rates come down a half percent of quarter. But I could go as low as 1.875 on the 30 year based on just those that negative 10 year yield forecast. After that, I think that's it. And I'm talking, that might be a very brief amount of time. So we're kind of almost toward the end. Just remember that every housing cycle is at 2% plus lower mortgage rates with duration to expand it. For that to happen again, you need about a 1.25 to 2.25 or 30 year fixed for about 5 or 6 years. Most likely, that's not going to be the case. Just because the business of doing loans is just going to be worth it and money is a cycle of flow there. No matter how much the Fed presses it, it's just probably not going to see that. So we're entering a new era in terms of, you don't need mortgage rates to go back to 5 to 6%. If they stop going lower like they have, it's going to be a little bit different. So that's why the home price is going out of the future. It's going to be a little bit different than what we saw just because we're not working from a bubble crash anymore. And the chances of mortgage rates dropping another 2% state is very unlikely. Wow. So very positive news for those that are in the real estate mortgage business over the next four or five years. Yeah. For purchases, it is. For refinances, I think we just took another wave of supply off. And unless you get, unless the economy goes into a double-dipper session, that supply refinances are going off. But then even when the 10 year yield rise, so I think 1.94% might be the high point for some time, you're creating more supply again. We just go back and forth, back and forth, back and forth. That's kind of what happened in 2017 and 2018 when the 10 year yield was higher. You created more supply for refinances, and then right away when the 10 year yield goes back down, that's your refinance supply. But purchase applications, housing demands should be okay in this period. I've always talked about this period. You have great replacement buyers. But if the first time owner is moving up, then you have an extra layer of demand. And I think that's what we saw in 2020 in the first two months. You saw that extra layer of demand, and then even for myself, home sales were 300,000 above where I thought, what would it be? So the demand is there, right? As long as mortgage rates stay below 4.5%, it should be okay. Just because the massive demographic patch and the first time owner is actually in a much better spot than what they were from 2003 to 2008. Very cool. Well, looking closing out, I want to spend just a couple of minutes on talking about data and how to leverage data to increase your influence, grow your brand. You obviously are passionate about data. But if you share just a couple of points for those loan officers watching, because I mean, you've been around long enough to know this isn't the first time that you've heard somebody say, you've got to in this market, right? You've got to really position yourself as an authority to understand what moves mortgage rates, what's really going on with the housing market. How can the loan officers be better at equipping themselves to understand data so they can have more intelligent conversations? Yeah, Americans are true for things. Copying paste people, which are a lot of people. We got that game down. We like to copy and paste stuff all the time on social media. That's our past time. Anybody can do that. But if you want to learn about why mortgage rates are low, why the housing market is holding up, then you become yourself, somebody of authority, and then you can draw more people toward you because if you're trying to sell doom and gloom, you're just another kind of boy band troll that's been here since 1790 talking trash about America all the way until you die. Okay, we've got millions of those. But if you want to up your game, learn why? Find out why something is happening. Because anybody could just copy and paste stuff and put it around everywhere, and doom and gloom cells. Find out why so people could come to you and they could trust you. If as soon as people trust you and they think, then you could go into your business and why people should go to you, but use this time in history when information is so available and learn why. Because once you get that trust and then that word goes out, hey, this guy knows what he's talking about. He's not selling and doom and gloom or he's not trying to get you to use his website. Learn. Find out the why for something and be better than the 99% who just copy and paste out there. 100% amen. And it's really reminds me of my friend Dave Savage, who coined a phrase, I believe to have more advice versus price conversations with your clients. And in order to do that, you have to be informed. So I want to give a shout out to a couple of resources, first and foremost, let me show you this on the screen here. Is your website, people should, and I put it here in the comments as well, people should number one, go there and subscribe because that's an incredible place, a learning place to, to better understand what moves markets, what's going on, right? With somebody of your, you know, broad understanding of all that. So logonmarachami.com and then also, of course, let's not forget to mention housing wire. You are an analyst for housing wire. And so anybody, I think, listening to this live on the replay on the audio, if you're not a subscriber to housing wire, particularly to their pulse and other tools and resources they have there, you should definitely subscribe to housing wire because I get the emails every day, right? The updates and notifications and it's just, we've got to be better educated, I think, as a profession because, you know, people often come to me for like the sales and marketing stuff, right? Scripting or hey, how do I deal with rate shoppers in this? How you deal with them is you be more informed, be more educated and demonstrate that for people, you will win trust and influence by doing that. Absolutely. And for everyone, just, you just Google my name, my Facebook page is open to the public, my Instagram, I do Instagram stories. It's 24-7 nerd live all the time. Okay. I don't sell anything about my business. I don't know your show. 24-7 nerd. Yeah. Yeah. I'm just, my blog is free. There's no advertising. There's nothing. My job is to teach. And this is my, the ex high school basketball coach in me right here. My job is to teach you why something is happening. I don't care about the price or how to get this somewhere. I want you to understand that, you know, why is something happening? And that's the most important part because then that means you've got the knowledge yourself and then you could pass that on instead of copying and pasting doom and gloom sites and then, you know, sharing that on. Right on. So once again, hey, people, don't forget, if you want to get a copy of the book, there it is disruptor.com, disruptor.book.com. We want to thank Logan and Housing Wire for teaming up on this. More good stuff to come as a collaboration between us and Housing Wire. So Logan, once again, man, an amazing audience, the audience went wild. Thank you so much for being here. Appreciate it. My pleasure. All right, everybody. Hey, you know what to do. We'll see you on the next time, same bad time, same bad channel. See you next week. Thanks for tuning in. Bye for now. Hey, guys, what's up? Real quick. This is marketing pro membership before, and I just want to quickly remind you of that you're in a place in your business where you simply need more purchased loans. You need to fill your pipeline with purchase business. Let's just face it, agents are still a solid pillar of business and sources of purchase business for you. Well, good news. Our mortgage marketing pro membership helps loan officers like you close more loans without the hassle of chasing agents or cold calling done for you agent classes, expert training videos, a marketing automation platform that automates the entire process for you, everything you need to build your personal brand in your local market, attract and convert agents into referral partners. 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